BY ABIGAIL SCHIFF AND SEAN HARRIS

To no one’s surprise, on October 28, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner became the first woman to democratically win the presidency of Argentina. Her husband, Nestor, has been president since 2003 and enjoys high approval ratings for his attempts to lead the country out of the economic abyss of 2001-2, when the currency collapsed and unemployment soared. The halo surrounding Nestor, along with the couple’s control over the dominant Peronist political movement, all but guaranteed Cristina’s victory.

Ms. Fernandez captured a robust 45 percent of the vote, primarily from Argentina’s working class and provincial poor. This constituency has strongly supported her husband’s more populist policies, such as his noisy contempt for the IMF, caps on domestic energy prices, and low interest rates. If Ms. Fernandez is to realize her goal of knitting together a lasting political coalition, however, she will have to win over the middle class professionals of Argentina’s northeastern cities, among whom she polled poorly.

Winning Over the Middle Class
Well-educated and cosmopolitan, this demographic should naturally align with the Kirchners, whose middle class student background has strongly colored their approach to politics. Steven Levitsky, associate professor of government at Harvard University, says that the Kirchner government could be the “least Peronist movement ever” to claim ideological descent from strongly populist former President Juan Peron. While their combination of open-market policies and nationalization of major industries is generally in line with mainstream Peronism, the Kirchners have shifted away from the traditional Peronist emphasis on directly helping the poor and unemployed, whose numbers ballooned after the 2001 recession. While the Kirchners often appeal to the poor and working class in speeches and rhetoric, in practice they have implemented a more social democratic, free market model that largely reflects the concerns of the middle class.

Still, Nestor Kirchner’s authoritarian tendencies—whether real or perceived—along with his friendly relations with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, have alienated the middle class, whose memories of the horrors of military dictatorship run deep. Ms. Fernandez, who can claim credit for her husband’s policies while distancing herself from his governing style, could have a fresh opportunity to win back what should be a natural constituency.

One Couple, Two Different People
Despite succeeding her husband to the presidency, Ms. Fernandez has an extensive political resume of her own. As she often points out in campaign speeches, she was in fact the first of the couple to enter politics, having served as a senator from the Santa Cruz region since 1995. But according to Professor Levitsky, the Kirchner team is extremely close-knit, with husband and wife collaborating on most political decisions. Before the 2003 presidential election, for example, the couple is said to have decided together that Nestor was more likely to win and should therefore run.

While the president and president-elect share similar political backgrounds and a close working relationship, they have different styles of governance as well as somewhat contrasting priorities. Néstor is the more reserved, less open to negotiation, and more domestically-focused of the two, while Cristina is seen to be more flamboyant, internationally-oriented, and open to others’ suggestions. Given the pair’s close collaboration, however, it remains unclear to what extent Ms. Fernandez’s distinct personality and priorities will affect the course she charts as president.

Economic Troubles
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner comes into the Casa Rosada with room to maneuver, but her administration will also face significant challenges. A key economic issue is the looming specter of inflation, which Nestor Kirchner has been accused of hiding. Argentina’s annual growth rate of eight percent is also considered unsustainable. Should Ms. Fernandez choose to use her political capital to support unpopular measures like raising energy prices and interest rates, she may be able to curb inflation rates and help Argentina move to a more stable growth rate.

Perhaps the most pressing issue is the gap between the rich and the poor, whose ranks now include many former members of a middle class devastated by the recent recession. Professor Jeffry Frieden, professor of government at Harvard, says that “Argentina is unique in that it is a poor country with the expectations of richer countries.” Ultimately, while Ms. Fernandez aspires to reach out to the working class and poor, only a highly innovative approach to governance—one that improves on her husband’s—has a chance at winning over Argentina’s influential middle class while narrowing the nation’s ever-worsening income gap. ]]>