While the world intently follows the American presidential election, another election transpired quietly in Russia. The key difference is that the outcome in Russia was known well before the election began. The Russian government disqualified most opposition candidates and used state-owned media outlets to ensure that Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin’s deputy prime minister and trusted advisor, would be elected as the next president of Russia. Medvedev is not well-known; few had heard of him before Putin, whom he previously served as chief of staff, endorsed him for the presidency. Some see Medvedev as a liberal reformer who will restore democracy and improve international relations. Others consider him a patsy through whom Putin will continue to wield power. Which Medvedev will enter the Kremlin this May?

A Chance for Change
Dmitry Medvedev takes office at a time at which the impetus for liberalization is great. Over the last decade, Russia has experienced an unprecedented economic boom, fueled by growing revenue from oil and gas sales. Putin presided over the stabilization of post-Soviet Russia and rapid economic growth.

Yet Russia’s oil wealth has also allowed it to flex its military muscles; Putin recently threatened to bomb military bases in Poland and the Czech Republic that host American missile defense facilities. Russia has also used its energy as a bargaining tool, threatening to cut off gas supplies to its European neighbors. In a massive rollback of liberties, Putin has rigged elections, stifled free expression, and broken up corporations owned by his political enemies, justifying his behavior by invoking Russian nationalism. Now that Russia is more politically stable and economically prosperous, however, Medvedev has an excellent opportunity to move the country toward multiparty democracy and better relations with the West.

On the surface, Medvedev, a young and well-educated law professor, seems capable of leading Russia to democracy. No foe of Western culture, he is a self-described fan of Deep Purple, Led Zeppelin, and Black Sabbath. He admits that issues regarding the rule of law and human rights plague Russia, and he told Business Week that “Russia is the country of legal nihilism.” In a recent campaign speech, he expressed strong support for democracy. Russian business leaders view Medvedev as a source of continued stability and support for the free market. By breaking the mold that previous leaders have established, he differentiates himself from the powerful ex-KGB Russian elite.

Putin’s Puppet?
Despite Medvedev’s groundbreaking rhetoric, the true measure of his success will be whether he ultimately breaks free of Putin’s influence. After Medvedev takes office, he will almost certainly ask Putin to become his prime minister, ensuring that Putin will still play an important role in decision-making inside the Kremlin. Medvedev has said that he “wants to preserve [Putin’s] course, simply because he has shown that it can work.” Many fear that the relatively inexperienced Medvedev will become Putin’s pawn.

Other experts remain optimistic. In an interview with the HPR, Dale Herspring, author of Putin’s Russia, noted that Putin declined to run for a third term and that he is unlikely to jeopardize Russia’s stability by usurping the new president’s power. He suggests that Putin is more interested in “making the Duma [parliament]…into a viable political institution,” a move that would aid Medvedev in ushering in a new era for Russia.

However, Russia’s rigid institutional framework and history of leadership may be too strong for Medvedev to overcome. Edward Lucas, a correspondent for the Economist and author of The New Cold War, theorized in an interview with the HPR that Medvedev and Putin will use a good-cop/bad-cop routine to dispel Western concerns about human rights. According to Lucas, the West neglects Russia’s institutions, instead seeing Russian leaders in terms of their personalities, “[falling] in love with new Russian leaders only to be disappointed by them.” Lucas predicts that “the same will probably happen with Medvedev.”

In their hit song “Won’t Be Fooled Again,” The Who sang, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.” As an admirer of Western rock music, Dmitry Medvedev is probably familiar with the song. Russians should hope that, unlike the “old boss,” he takes serious steps toward democracy and extends the olive branch to the West. Considering Russia’s past, however, the international community has every reason to be skeptical.]]>http://hprsite.squarespace.com/who-is-dmitry-medvedev-042008/rss-comments-entry-1800439.xml